Is Trump Making America Great Again? – YP Investors Newsletter XIV March 3-30-2026

International stocks vs U.S. stocks. S&P 500 Overvalued? Why International Stocks Are Winning

Hello from YP Investors! Since the war in Iran has brought the market down recently, we wondered how the Trump Presidency has affected the US market compared to the world? You might be surprised by the dramatic results!

In today’s newsletter we will go over these results as well as the Current Market Updates, YP Freebies, and more!

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International stocks vs U.S. stocks

Is Trump Making America Great Again?🤔 Let the results speak for themselves:

🌍 Why International Stocks are on fire and a 100% U.S. Stock Portfolio is Playing with Fire Right Now

If you’ve been on autopilot with your investments, exclusively dumping cash into a U.S. total market or S&P 500 fund, it’s time for a massive reality check.

Let’s look at how the global markets have actually performed since the new presidential administration took office in January 2025, and why leaning too heavily on the U.S. right now could be the riskiest move you can make.

📊 The 14-Month Market Scorecard (Jan 2025 – March 2026), International Stocks win BIG!

Here is a breakdown of the three major index funds you should be watching, what they actually own, and their Total Return (price growth + reinvested dividends) since Inauguration Day (January 17th 2025 Closing Prices-March 27th 2026 Closing Prices):

  • VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF): +7.72% Total Return
    • What it includes: The 500 largest, most profitable companies in the United States (heavily dominated by Big Tech like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia).
  • VEA (Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets): +32.12% Total Return
    • What it includes: Over 4,000 stocks from established, advanced economies outside the U.S. (think Japan, the U.K., Canada, France, and Switzerland).
  • VWO (Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets): +23.61% Total Return
    • What it includes: Over 5,000 stocks from rapidly growing, developing economies (like India, China, Taiwan, and Brazil).

Notice the trend? International markets have absolutely crushed the U.S. market over the last year and a half (since Trump took office).

🚨 Why an “All-U.S.” Strategy is Dangerous Right Now

For the last decade, simply buying the U.S. market was the ultimate cheat code. But the math has changed, and three massive warning lights are currently flashing:

  1. The Shiller P/E Ratio (CAPE): This metric looks at inflation-adjusted earnings over the last 10 years to smooth out short-term noise. Right now, the S&P 500 Shiller P/E is hovering around 40. Historically, the only other time it has been this high was the peak of the 1999 dot-com bubble. When the CAPE is this elevated, future 10-year returns for that market are historically near zero. (We covered this in a recent Newsletter)
  2. The Buffett Indicator: Warren Buffett’s favorite valuation metric divides the total U.S. stock market capitalization by the total U.S. GDP. Right now, it is sitting above 200% (a historical extreme). Buffett himself has warned that buying stocks when this ratio nears 200% is “playing with fire,” as stock prices have completely detached from the actual economic output of the country.
  3. The Administration’s Economic Landscape: Navigating the Trump administration’s complex web of aggressive tariffs, shifting trade policies, and shifting federal spending creates a highly unpredictable macro environment. This combination often leads to sticky inflation and higher interest rates, which disproportionately pressures the massively overvalued U.S. tech companies that have been artificially carrying the S&P 500 higher.

💡 The Takeaway:

The era of blind U.S. dominance is taking a breather. The massive 32% and 23% returns we’ve seen in International Stocks (Developed and Emerging markets) since early 2025 aren’t a fluke—they are the result of Tariff/Trade consequences, smart money rotating out of an overpriced U.S. market, and buying up highly profitable international companies that are trading at steep discounts.

If your portfolio is 100% U.S. stocks, you are buying at the absolute top of a historic bubble. You don’t need to abandon the U.S., but you absolutely must build a Margin of Safety by diversifying globally.

Free Retirement Calculator

Navigating the complexities of wealth accumulation doesn’t have to be overwhelming. This calculator cuts through the noise by seamlessly integrating your most critical financial variables, from 401(k) balances and Social Security to inflation rates and tax-advantaged Roth IRAs.

Whether you are trying to optimize your long-term tax strategy, manage future capital gains, or simply ensure your money outlasts your retirement, this tool provides an instant, clear-eyed projection of your financial health so you can plan your future with absolute confidence.

Take the guesswork out of your golden years and build a personalized roadmap to financial freedom.

YP Freebies:

Point and Figure Charts: Invest and trade with confidence using the Free Version of our advanced Point and Figure Charts

Current Market Conditions are Bad!

YP’s technical indicators suggested the Market (NYSE) Conditions are currently Bad.

Right now, the Market has about 42.44% of Stocks on buy signals and is trending lower. It is important to be defensive right now. The Market peaked at about 68% of stocks on Buy signals over a month ago. 

If you are a member of YP Investors we will automatically notify you instantly anytime the Market Conditions change (Become a Member here).

What does this mean?


NOTE: This is Not Investment Advice.

Selling has recently taken control of stocks and we can expect stock prices to fall. You should switch to a defensive investing/trading strategy. 

Our technical indicators use the stocks in the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) to generate the current Market conditions. This means that the majority of stocks are falling in price and should continue to fall in price until the market conditions change. It does not mean that all stocks are guaranteed to drop in price, but there is a high probability that a stock will.

Action to take on any current positions: This is a good time to take action and protect your investments or trades from losing value or dropping in price. You don’t need to sell everything immediately, but what we do at YP Investors is look for sell signals, positive trend violations, and fundamental changes. For details on the specific actions YP Investors takes when market conditions are bad check out YP Investors Strategy during Bad Market Conditions.

Action to take with any cash: Since the conditions are bad YP Investors strategy is typically to avoid purchasing any stocks at this time. As usual we will display a list of Bond ETFs that we use to preserve wealth if we have a need to invest cash. 
Warren Buffet’s Favorite cash-holding bonds are short-term US treasuries with 3-6 Month Expiration.
It’s important to know: before you buy Bonds/Bond ETFs you want to hold them for the minimum time to interest payment (1-6 months) to capitalize on the dividend/interest payment.

Tutorials!

Don’t forget, we have a number of tutorial videos which can help in understanding our Tools and Charts! Click here to go to our Video Tutorials page.

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